State capacity isn't a substitute for bad policy: is Britain ready for tobacco wars?
Australia’s tobacco wars are a consequence of ‘high state capacity’ and the authoritarian belief that if government mandates prohibition then strong authority will make sure that people will comply
“At Harry’s Mart, on busy Chapel Street in the upmarket suburb of Prahran, The Diplomat was given a view from behind the curtain of a wide range of black-market goods for sale.
Shortly afterwards, at 4 a.m. on June 6, Harry’s Mart was engulfed in flames with police saying they were investigating the suspected firebombing of a “convenience” store. To date, no one has been held responsible.
Investigating sources also told The Diplomat that gyms, barber shops, and general stores locally known as milk bars were also suspected of selling or being coerced into stocking contraband and had been targeted.”
Australia has a reputation for being one of the world’s best governed countries. Writers like Helen Dale have pointed to Australia’s ‘high state capacity’ while reminding us that the larrikin image of the country ignores a tendency for authoritarianism.
Australia’s tobacco wars are a consequence of that ‘state capacity’ and the authoritarian belief that if the government mandates the prohibition of something then strong authority will make sure that prohibition works. But Australia, the poster child of good government, has crashed into the immovable force of consumer demand, in this case for nicotine. Understandably, given that high state capacity, those responsible for these policies believe doubling down on enforcement will end the violence despite at least a third of tobacco being smuggled and even higher levels of vapes.
We have been conditioned to believe that tobacco (and increasingly nicotine the drug we crave from smoking) is a uniquely terrible product meriting the sort of draconian policies we see in Australia and, now, in Britain with the imminent Tobacco & Vapes Bill and France with its ban on most outdoor smoking. Public health authorities believe that ratcheting up duty on cigarettes, limiting the availability of e-cigarettes and banning other non-pharmaceutical nicotine products will result in an accelerated decline in levels of smoking. These authorities believe, despite the evidence from a place with ‘high state capacity’, that the result won’t be a repeat of Australia’s firebombings, murders and gang wars. I think it is safe to say that, just as Australia’s public health leadership are foolish (and denying the evidence of their foolishness), public health leaders and politicians in Britain and France are moving towards policies that will only result in new and lucrative markets for organised crime.
And let’s remember that Australia has much stronger control of its borders than France or Britain.
Meanwhile another country with a historic reputation for state capacity, Sweden, has reduced smoking levels below 5%, the first country to do this - all without bans, excessive hikes in cigarette prices and other elements of the preferred tobacco control playbook we see in Britain and Australia:
“Sweden has made anti-smoking history by becoming the first country in the world to be officially declared ‘smoke free,’ new government figures reveal.
The data, released by Sweden’s public health agency today, shows that just 4.5 per cent of Swedish-born adults now smoke – well under the globally recognised benchmark of five per cent to achieve smoke free status.
The Scandinavian country has hit the impressive milestone 16 years ahead of the European Union target, which most of its fellow member states are set to miss by some distance.
Average smoking rates in Europe currently sit at 24 per cent – five times higher than Sweden.”
We should note that tobacco control people in Britain and Australia sniff at Sweden’s success by saying that all the Swede’s have done is replace combustible tobacco for oral tobacco - snus. At the heart of this claim is the mistaken idea that the problem is the consumption of nicotine rather than the use of combustible cigarettes to obtain the drug. There are different views on nicotine varying from it being extremely harmful through ‘it’s about as harmful as caffeine’, to the drug being really good for you. What Sweden has done is focus on reducing harm from smoking by making sure that people have a relatively safe (compared to cigarettes) alternative that is readily available and affordable. Here in Britain, we’ve done the opposite by creating a new black market in tobacco while limiting choice and availability for vapes and other non-combustible nicotine products (creating a new block market into the bargain).
“A poll by Roy Morgan Research indicates that tobacco use, including both smoking and vaping, has increased among 18-24 year olds in Australia since September 2024. This increase, driven by higher rates of vaping and smoking factory-made and roll-your-own cigarettes, is particularly notable among young adults, with a 2.9% point increase for this age group. The rise in smoking and vaping among young adults contrasts with trends in other age groups, where rates have either remained stable or decreased.” (for some reason RMR has removed the poll from its website, probably because the commissioners didn’t like the results)
What the reports don’t perhaps make clear enough is that this increase is driven by ILLEGAL use of vaping products and smoking factory-made and roll-your-own cigarettes. The difference between the price of smuggled cigarettes is enormous with 20 legal cigarettes costing over Aus$40 compared to a black market price of Aus$10-15. The rise in smoking reflects this affordability as well as the de facto ban on access to vapes and non-pharma nicotine products, making the cost of vapes in the new black market as much as Aus$25.
We have two examples from well-governed countries and you’d expect that the world’s public health leadership would be flocking to Sweden, urging other places to adopt its successful strategy. You’d be wrong, here’s World Health Organisation Regional Director for Asia Pacific, Saia Ma'u Piukala:
“Australia's leadership in tobacco control is both commendable and inspiring, demonstrated by their sustained efforts to reduce tobacco use.
“Their strengthened regulation of e-cigarettes is a significant step forward for public health in the region and highlights their commitment to preserving tobacco control progress and protecting children and future generations from harmful and addictive products.
“These approaches offer valuable lessons that can be adapted to suit diverse contexts within our region.
“The use of e-cigarettes among young people is increasing at an alarming rate, negatively impacting communities and societies.
“The World Health Organization urges Member States in the Western Pacific Region to either ban or stringently regulate e-cigarettes as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy.”
Almost everywhere in the world, cigarette usage is falling but the WHO and public health ‘experts’ tell us to adopt the policies of the only large developed country with rising rates of tobacco use. A country, famed for being well-governed but now plagued with a bunch of violent criminal gangs making millions from a black market created by the Australian state. Britain, in adopting Australia’s approach, will face the same, helping fuel the wider increase in crime and violence driven by other state-created black markets as well as policing strategies designed to deal with domestic burglary not street crime and smuggling.
“It's pitch black and we're crawling along a secret underground tunnel beneath a high street in Hull. We pass rotting beams propped up precariously by stacked breeze blocks. A rusty car jack is helping prevent the shop floor above from falling in.
Through the rubble, we follow a Trading Standards Officer, his torch swinging back and forth in the darkness until it rests on a hidden stash of thousands of illegal cigarettes.
This is just one such surreal experience while investigating the sale of illegal cigarettes in Hull. In one week we repeatedly witnessed counterfeit and smuggled tobacco being sold in high street mini marts - and were threatened by shop workers who grabbed our cameras when we tried to film them.”
It will get worse. Trust me on this. And the authorities, just like those in Australia, won’t blame their own policies despite those policies encouraging crime and stopping the progress towards a smoke free Britain. We are governed by fools.