Robert Jenrick’s failure, despite all the efforts of his pals in the “Boys Who Hate Kemi Club”, has presented the opportunity for the Conservatives to talk about the economics of real life
Simon, this is another great piece and you are absolutely right about the economy: Labour’s delegate MPs and visionless cabinet can’t offer anything coherent and Reform’s current economic positions veer between welfare largesse and full throated City deregulation.
There is also a huge opportunity for the Conservatives under Kemi's leadership to appeal to female voters, specifically those who are gender-critical and disillusioned with left-wing parties.
I have met quite a few of these women over the past few years. They are usually former leftists over 50 who have abandoned Labour due to Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield and the capitulation to trans issues that continues to characterise key decisions (like the delay in releasing ECHR guidance on single-sex spaces). They won't vote Green or LibDem for the same reasons but see Reform as too right-wing, too blokey, too much of a cult of personality around Farage, whom they perceive as a brash, untrustworthy, Trumpian figure.
These women feel politically homeless. They have frequently vocalised an aversion to voting Tory (many sat out the last election for this reason) but acknowledge that Kemi is strong on the issues they care about. There is a real opportunity to convince them that the Conservatives are looking at things afresh and adopting sensible positions across the board. Rhetoric will be key. Firm messaging on what the issues are and how to fix them, but less reliance on patriotic tropes associated with the right.
I think Kemi also has a chance to appeal to millennial professionals trying to maintain a middle- or upper-middle-class lifestyle. Many people I know who fall into this camp have prioritised career and/or family for most of their 30s and are not very politically engaged as a result. Many of them voted Labour or LibDems at the last election purely because they felt change was due, and those parties felt "safe". But economically they are now feeling squeezed and strongly sense that Labour is ideologically committed to making their lives harder.
These individuals are pragmatic at heart, yet as millennials they have swum in liberal waters all their lives and will be put off by any policy announcements that are wrapped up in language around nation, faith, and tradition, even if those policies are otherwise sound. They will be much more receptive to policy objectives that are clear and tangible. If Kemi can talk about lowering the tax burden for working families, capping council tax rises -- things like that -- then there is a chance for the Conservatives to win this cohort over big-time.
"In the end people want their government to get to grips with inflation, unemployment and the conditions of ordinary people. This, not immigration, identity or culture will be the defining issue come the 2029 election."
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Well yes. But this almost has the ring to it of all those claims that people didn't care about the EU.
The fact that we all need to put food on the table doesn't mean that this is the only concern that animates people. Indeed it is often the grand romantic notions that set the heart racing.
Also, are the Tories actually talking about the economy? Inflation, for example. Mostly they don't understand what it is or what causes it, or that they were in power when the damage was done.
You can’t get there unless you stop mass immigration from third world, scrap DEI, and give the indigenous majority the right to exist other than as oppressors
Simon, this is another great piece and you are absolutely right about the economy: Labour’s delegate MPs and visionless cabinet can’t offer anything coherent and Reform’s current economic positions veer between welfare largesse and full throated City deregulation.
Quite.
There is also a huge opportunity for the Conservatives under Kemi's leadership to appeal to female voters, specifically those who are gender-critical and disillusioned with left-wing parties.
I have met quite a few of these women over the past few years. They are usually former leftists over 50 who have abandoned Labour due to Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield and the capitulation to trans issues that continues to characterise key decisions (like the delay in releasing ECHR guidance on single-sex spaces). They won't vote Green or LibDem for the same reasons but see Reform as too right-wing, too blokey, too much of a cult of personality around Farage, whom they perceive as a brash, untrustworthy, Trumpian figure.
These women feel politically homeless. They have frequently vocalised an aversion to voting Tory (many sat out the last election for this reason) but acknowledge that Kemi is strong on the issues they care about. There is a real opportunity to convince them that the Conservatives are looking at things afresh and adopting sensible positions across the board. Rhetoric will be key. Firm messaging on what the issues are and how to fix them, but less reliance on patriotic tropes associated with the right.
I think Kemi also has a chance to appeal to millennial professionals trying to maintain a middle- or upper-middle-class lifestyle. Many people I know who fall into this camp have prioritised career and/or family for most of their 30s and are not very politically engaged as a result. Many of them voted Labour or LibDems at the last election purely because they felt change was due, and those parties felt "safe". But economically they are now feeling squeezed and strongly sense that Labour is ideologically committed to making their lives harder.
These individuals are pragmatic at heart, yet as millennials they have swum in liberal waters all their lives and will be put off by any policy announcements that are wrapped up in language around nation, faith, and tradition, even if those policies are otherwise sound. They will be much more receptive to policy objectives that are clear and tangible. If Kemi can talk about lowering the tax burden for working families, capping council tax rises -- things like that -- then there is a chance for the Conservatives to win this cohort over big-time.
How very Thatcherite of you. A return to a desire for small government, low taxes. Add a whiff of hope and pride.
The risk to this as a policy is the vast size of state employment
"In the end people want their government to get to grips with inflation, unemployment and the conditions of ordinary people. This, not immigration, identity or culture will be the defining issue come the 2029 election."
*
Well yes. But this almost has the ring to it of all those claims that people didn't care about the EU.
The fact that we all need to put food on the table doesn't mean that this is the only concern that animates people. Indeed it is often the grand romantic notions that set the heart racing.
Also, are the Tories actually talking about the economy? Inflation, for example. Mostly they don't understand what it is or what causes it, or that they were in power when the damage was done.
You can’t get there unless you stop mass immigration from third world, scrap DEI, and give the indigenous majority the right to exist other than as oppressors