We should look at these statist solutions and tell their proponents that the things they propose won’t make people’s lives better and may even make them worse.
"In the UK the baddies are economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East. "
It would be closer to the truth if the claim said the baddies are overwhelmingly young male Sunni economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East pretending to be asylum seekers from France and undermining the identifiable migrants on study and work visas who do the process the legal way.
It would be even closer to the truth if it was said that the baddies are the last two Governments who asserted that they would stop it and did not, and who don't understand incentives.
It's a bit like the grooming gangs problem. The rapeys are in jail, so that part is majorly solved. The problem is our own public officials and police who prevaricated, even outright didn't believe witnesses. The problem is us.
The rapeys aren't in jail. Most of the offenders never saw the inside of a courtroom. The most extreme examples was Telford where over 200 men engaged in the rape of underage teenage girls, but only 7 were convicted on Operation Chalice with a further 3-4 convicted in Operation Vapour.
A good range for a multiplier of convictions to perpetrators is 8-20x in well-investigated cases, rising to 20-50x or more in historical reviews where many abusers evaded justice due to early failures.
The other problem is that grooming gangs are still ongoing. The Maggie Oliver Foundation is currently supporting dozens of girls who were abused in the last 2–3 years by Pakistani-heritage gangs in Rochdale, Oldham, and Bradford. The Grooming Gangs Taskforce had made 1,100+ arrests by October 2025, 597 in the last 12 months alone. 4,000+ victims were safeguarded, many current or recent.
I'm sympathetic to your viewpoint, although I disagree with your view on ethnonationalism. Less than 10% of Reform voters hold what might be called BNP legacy views. If we look at the early membership revocations in pursuit of a mass wave towards Advance UK, the figure appears to be around 7%.
But I absolutely agree with everything else. The Simpson’s Paradox error the Blairite Left made when they looked at the late-nineties and early 2000s was in imagining the boom in London was because of greater diversity, when it was simply the fact that we had managed to draw in entrepreneurs from around the world.
The problem is that we need a government which capable of operating a scalpel rather than a battle axe. I was chatting about this with a civil service friend of mine. His point was that most of the scandals related to migrants were failures of government.
Yesterday, performed a statistical analysis of asylum seeking hotels. Over the course of their lifetime, between 3-20% of asylum seekers from the higher offending foreign national countries will commit some form of sexual offence over the course of their active lifetime, but cases of harassment, pestering and catcalling of schoolgirls will be far more common given evidence thus far, between 10-50%. Although there was some good data from the UK, I also drew from evidence from other European countries to obtain a realistic estimate range. As with the sexual offending, the estimate relates more to the variance between incidences by country of national origin than it does to a possible range, although there is an element of the latter. Cultural norms governing flirtation, age of consent and acceptable mating rituals vary greatly by culture.
On a more positive note, this would suggest that much of the problem is a matter of cultural etiquette rather than the outright intention to commit rape or sexual assault.
The latter is an easy fix though. Expressed sentiment from the asylum seekers themselves shows that they are far more fearful of deportation-related UK government agencies than they are of imprisonment in the UK. If one really wanted to diffuse tension and prevent the unfair stereotyping of people from different cultures then the common sense approach would involve simply telling the asylum seekers that if they misbehave in any way with teenage girls they are likely to be asked to leave the country. This may sound hard, but it would massively reduce the complaints stemming from local communities, and restore confidence in our asylum process.
I beg to disagree with this claim:
"In the UK the baddies are economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East. "
It would be closer to the truth if the claim said the baddies are overwhelmingly young male Sunni economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East pretending to be asylum seekers from France and undermining the identifiable migrants on study and work visas who do the process the legal way.
It would be even closer to the truth if it was said that the baddies are the last two Governments who asserted that they would stop it and did not, and who don't understand incentives.
It's a bit like the grooming gangs problem. The rapeys are in jail, so that part is majorly solved. The problem is our own public officials and police who prevaricated, even outright didn't believe witnesses. The problem is us.
The rapeys aren't in jail. Most of the offenders never saw the inside of a courtroom. The most extreme examples was Telford where over 200 men engaged in the rape of underage teenage girls, but only 7 were convicted on Operation Chalice with a further 3-4 convicted in Operation Vapour.
A good range for a multiplier of convictions to perpetrators is 8-20x in well-investigated cases, rising to 20-50x or more in historical reviews where many abusers evaded justice due to early failures.
The other problem is that grooming gangs are still ongoing. The Maggie Oliver Foundation is currently supporting dozens of girls who were abused in the last 2–3 years by Pakistani-heritage gangs in Rochdale, Oldham, and Bradford. The Grooming Gangs Taskforce had made 1,100+ arrests by October 2025, 597 in the last 12 months alone. 4,000+ victims were safeguarded, many current or recent.
It's still happening.
I'm sympathetic to your viewpoint, although I disagree with your view on ethnonationalism. Less than 10% of Reform voters hold what might be called BNP legacy views. If we look at the early membership revocations in pursuit of a mass wave towards Advance UK, the figure appears to be around 7%.
But I absolutely agree with everything else. The Simpson’s Paradox error the Blairite Left made when they looked at the late-nineties and early 2000s was in imagining the boom in London was because of greater diversity, when it was simply the fact that we had managed to draw in entrepreneurs from around the world.
The problem is that we need a government which capable of operating a scalpel rather than a battle axe. I was chatting about this with a civil service friend of mine. His point was that most of the scandals related to migrants were failures of government.
Yesterday, performed a statistical analysis of asylum seeking hotels. Over the course of their lifetime, between 3-20% of asylum seekers from the higher offending foreign national countries will commit some form of sexual offence over the course of their active lifetime, but cases of harassment, pestering and catcalling of schoolgirls will be far more common given evidence thus far, between 10-50%. Although there was some good data from the UK, I also drew from evidence from other European countries to obtain a realistic estimate range. As with the sexual offending, the estimate relates more to the variance between incidences by country of national origin than it does to a possible range, although there is an element of the latter. Cultural norms governing flirtation, age of consent and acceptable mating rituals vary greatly by culture.
On a more positive note, this would suggest that much of the problem is a matter of cultural etiquette rather than the outright intention to commit rape or sexual assault.
The latter is an easy fix though. Expressed sentiment from the asylum seekers themselves shows that they are far more fearful of deportation-related UK government agencies than they are of imprisonment in the UK. If one really wanted to diffuse tension and prevent the unfair stereotyping of people from different cultures then the common sense approach would involve simply telling the asylum seekers that if they misbehave in any way with teenage girls they are likely to be asked to leave the country. This may sound hard, but it would massively reduce the complaints stemming from local communities, and restore confidence in our asylum process.