Some bad predictions mostly about Britain's 2026 Scottish, Welsh and local council elections (and leadership challenges)

A few thoughts about the year ahead. I don’t really do predictions because I tend to get them wrong so feel free to point and laugh later in the year.

A dragon for no reason other than I really like dragons

Happy New Year! A few thoughts about the year ahead. I don’t really do predictions because I tend to get them wrong so feel free to point and laugh later in the year. What follows is mostly about British politics but seasoned with one or two other spicy things.

One of the dominant themes in British punditry is speculation about the future of Keir Starmer and here the assumption appears to be that Sir Keir is toast. Labour is going to be wiped out in the local elections, Scotland and Wales (more on this later) and the MPs, facing doom, or at least the to find a different more useful job after a General Election, will leap into action. I don’t expect Starmer to resign since that isn’t his style so 80 or more MPs need to stick their heads above the parapet to back some sort of challenge. Meanwhile the ‘King in the North’, Andy Burnham who represents the least incredible choice as next Labour leader, will be working hard to stop any challenge because that would exclude him from the contest.

If the local elections are a disaster it might be enough to get those 80 MPs to line up behind a challenger like Wes Streeting but I don’t get the impression that Streeting is all that well-liked and it would reopen the can of worms that is Streeting’s social media history as well as reigniting the discussion about whether he’ll hold his seat against an Islamist (or maybe Green-Islamist) candidate. The worst thing Labour MPs want is to pick a new, feisty but not especially likeable leader who is nailed on to lose his seat come a General Election. Other prospective candidates who might jump include Angela Rayner, who is popular but backing her hands opponents the bazooka of her stamp duty and housing shenanigans not to mention her messy personal life. Nobody will jump to challenge Starmer unless they have those 80 backers already lined up and I’m not sure any likely candidate has those numbers (this might change if Ed Miliband decided to act rather than sitting and waiting for the debris of the Labour Party to fall into his hands).

So what about those May elections? Is Labour going to get trounced? Unless something changes dramatically it seems likely that Labour will get the same scale of drubbing that the Tories got in 2022. And in England the elections will be dominated by Labour defending its heartlands of London boroughs and metropolitan districts. The Party will be fighting on several fronts, against Reform in working class suburban districts like Tameside, Sunderland and Wakefield, against the Greens across those inner London boroughs like Lambeth, Southwark and Haringey as well as in cities like Leeds and Newcastle, against (maybe Green-aligned) Islamist ‘independents’ in East and North London, Bradford and Birmingham, and against the Tories in posh central London boroughs of Westminster, Wandsworth and Hammersmith.

While the loss of seats will be traumatic, what matters post-election is the loss of council control. I don’t think Labour will lose inner London boroughs like Greenwich, Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham. In most of these places the Party can afford to lose 15-20 seats without losing control. In metropolitan districts most are elected on thirds making changes of control more difficult. Outside of London it is worth looking to Bradford and Birmingham which have all-out elections (in Bradford’s case on new boundaries). I expect Labour to lose control in both of these places but what sort of leadership emerges in anyone’s guess. In Bradford expect a shaky alliance between Greens (who already have ten councillors) and the Islamist independents (currently with nine) but as one senior member told me ‘God alone knows what we’ll get”. In Birmingham a similar outcome is likely and in both cities reform will join the game with ten or a dozen councillors in each place.

For Reform UK the problem is different. The Party is convinced it will repeat what happened in last year’s County Council elections and, quite understandably, points to how many local by-elections reform has won since last year’s elections. I think, compared to their enthusiastic expectations, Reform will underperform. The loud noises about cancelled elections made for good tactics but poor strategy and it is unclear where, aside from places not having elections, Reform’s targets. You’d expect the Party to do well in Dudley, Wolverhampton, Tameside, Wigan, and Sandwell but the problem is that Reform can, in effect, win elections in these places and them still remain in Labour or ‘No Overall’ control.

I expect Reform to focus its big guns on the Welsh and Scottish elections with the aim of being the biggest party in Wales and the second biggest in Scotland. I don’t expect Reform to win enough in Wales to take actual power, the likely outcome is a Plaid Cymru First Minister propped up by Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. In Scotland the only real question is whether the SNP will get an overall majority or carry on governing courtesy of the Scottish Greens. It will be interesting to see if Labour or Tories come third as Reform becomes the second party although still a long way behind the SNP.

I think the Tories will be quite cautious not to raise expectations and will concentrate on a few high profile places (Westminster, Wandsworth, Trafford) where they stand a real chance of breakthrough while trying to hold the line where they remain strong (Croydon, Dudley, Solihull, Bromley, Harrow). Despite the arguments of former Number 10 staff about Kemi Badenoch being ousted after the elections, I think this is very unlikely especially if Reform (as I expect) do less well than their hype predicted. If the gradual improvement in the Tory polling position continues the Party may do a lot better than it wants you to expect.

For the Lib Dems these are also tricky elections as the Party did very well four years ago and needs to defend hard in some of the Districts where it exercises power as well as in places like Sutton where the Tories are the main challenge. Reform voters should do the Lib Dems a favour again by leaching enough usually Tory voters to keep them in power. Expect the Lib Dems to target one or two places (Stockport, Calderdale) where they have good organisation as historic strength. The safe predictions here are that Ed Davey will be filmed doing daft stunts and won’t shut up about Trump.

Finally the Greens will do well all over - winning seats in leafy suburbia like Solihull, in Leeds and Bradford, among cool lefty professionals in London and ethnic minority enclaves not already marked by Islamist independents. Zack Polanski will continue his ‘Oooh Jeremy Corbyn’ act making him the big favourite for the minority of students who bother to vote.

For the Party leaders, the most vulnerable is Starmer followed by Badenoch, but there’s a less than evens chance of challenges to either. In Starmer’s case a challenge depends on the willingness of the main players to raise the flag of rebellion. The stalking horse option doesn’t exist because of the need for 80 MPs to back the challenger (and the trauma caused by the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader). Of course Starmer might resign but why would he unless it was inevitable he’d go down to a big defeat? No other leader faces any challenge so long as they avoid scandal or stupidity.

None of what’s above is the result of detailed analysis, life is too short for all that nonsense. And it all assumes there is no seismic event affecting British politics such as scandal, sudden death, illness or some form of economic collapse. If, say, Nigel Farage was to have a stroke or Sir Keir gets caught fiddling expenses again then the outcomes of May’s elections might be very different. Similarly a banking crisis or sudden surge in prices could affect the outcome (albeit less so since it is hard to see how Labour’s handling of the economy could be less popular).

On to some other random predictions:

1. West Ham will be relegated, Arsenal will be Premier League Champions and England will reach the semi-finals of the World Cup

2. In the Six Nations, England will win the title but not a Grand Slam

3. The US mid-term elections will see Republicans retain control of the Senate and the House. But only just.

4. There won’t be an end to the war in Ukraine, the progress to peace in Gaza will by glacial and there will be at least one terrible Islamist attack in a European city

5. Andalucia in May will be sunny.

I hope you all have a great year.