To your point it’s hard not to see a lot of Labour led authorities slip towards NoC in 2026 and more in 2027. It creates quite a fluid context for the big planning and devolution bills that will be on the books by then, and for some of the local government reorganisation that’s due. I can see the Planning Inspectorate having a heavy appeals workload.
I'd be interested in your turnout predictions if you have any. Typically two out of three registered voters don't care to vote. In the 2024 general election the Senedd said "At both a UK and Wales level, turnout was down at this general election. The drop in Wales was larger, from 67% to 56%." Scotland bucks the trend with turnouts holding up - may be independence is such a big question mark that more people make an effort.
You'd think that turnout in Brum would go up as the bin strike drags on. People might give a shit, pardon the pun.
But adult social care, children's services and SEND are not visible. And statutory anyway. What's the point of voting in locals unless as a protest vote. So who has the highest turnout for a protest vote - not Labour or Conservative I'd say
To your point it’s hard not to see a lot of Labour led authorities slip towards NoC in 2026 and more in 2027. It creates quite a fluid context for the big planning and devolution bills that will be on the books by then, and for some of the local government reorganisation that’s due. I can see the Planning Inspectorate having a heavy appeals workload.
I'd be interested in your turnout predictions if you have any. Typically two out of three registered voters don't care to vote. In the 2024 general election the Senedd said "At both a UK and Wales level, turnout was down at this general election. The drop in Wales was larger, from 67% to 56%." Scotland bucks the trend with turnouts holding up - may be independence is such a big question mark that more people make an effort.
You'd think that turnout in Brum would go up as the bin strike drags on. People might give a shit, pardon the pun.
But adult social care, children's services and SEND are not visible. And statutory anyway. What's the point of voting in locals unless as a protest vote. So who has the highest turnout for a protest vote - not Labour or Conservative I'd say
Regarding Wales; can Welsh Labour really be considered unionist at this point?
Your international predictions (no 4) were notably lacking any view about whether there will or won’t be regime change in Teheran….
Probably not.