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John Bowman's avatar

The inability of young people to buy a house is evident in Continental Europe and USA, and is not a matter of politics per se. It is a complex issue but here’s one factor to consider. Nothing has any intrinsic value - money doesn’t - so value is a matter of perception. If two parties A & B agree, one A to sell and the other B to buy a house for £100 000 then A values the money more than the house, B values the house more than the money. So what is the ‘true’ value of the house? There is none. If twenty years later B looks at house prices in his street and finds his house probably would sell for £120 000, that does not mean his house has increased in value by 20%, it means money has devalued by 20%. So inflation. It is well understood that property is inflation-proof, money not. This pushes asset prices up with inflation. If you want to inflation-proof your money, put it in property. If B sells his house, the £120 000 will not buy him any more then the £100 000 twenty years prior, but it won’t buy less. There is always a significant lag between wage rises and inflation, and wages never catch up. We have cyclic Government caused bouts of high inflation which each time push asset/house prices way ahead of wages so that the asset/wage ration increases. Added to this is too low interest rates causing property booms. This part explains why in the 1970s, a ratio of three times salary would get you a mortgage enough to cover 85% of the purchase cost of a property, whereas now it won’t go anywhere near. To address this requires a fundamental rethink of our economy. First, the welfare state needs to be abolished and most public services returned to the private sector as this is a huge cost to the public purse, cannot be covered by tax receipts, requires borrowing and money printing = inflation. Next more land for building must be made available, so goodby ‘green belt’ and current planning rules. NIMBYs Ahoy! Then abolish the idiotic building regs designed to ‘save the planet’. One more factor. Economists all (most) agree increased labour productivity results in higher wages. So we have a labour market problem to fix. Sucking in an almost inexhaustible supply of cheap labour has driven down our labour productivity and thus wages. (Employers have no incentive to change their business model to be more productive with so much cheap labour available.) Since wage differentials matter, wages depressed at the bottom, have a downward pressure on wages all up the wage ladder. Another problem is feeding 50% of school output into universities. This inevitably increases output, gluts the market so pushes wages down. Now the real problem. There has been no Conservative Party with Conservative principles since 1945. Each successive Conservative Government continued Labours post- war Socialism, even Thatcher. Yes she got rid of the State owned companies and clipped the Unions’ wings, but she left the rest of the Socialist enterprise alive and well. As for Conservative grass roots - I think they are a rare breed indeed. Next time you chat to an alleged Conservative grass roots person ask: should we abolish the NHS and restore provision/insurance to the competitive private sector? If the answer is ‘yes’ you have found a Conservative. Good hunting.

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